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CrossVol Research on Substack
Subscribe →Non-consensus research notes on macro volatility, derivatives positioning, and cross-asset transmission. Read by the desk.
- 3 Jul 2026 Five Signals, One Screen, No Consensus: What the Options Market Is Actually Pricing on July 3 VIX 15. OVX 41. GVZ pricing gold like tech vol. Specs flat gold, exiting crude, long copper. Silver compressing the ratio. Five narratives on one screen. The…
- 3 Jul 2026 The AI Debt Trojan: Why the US IG Index Just Got Prettier and More Fragile AA-rated hyperscalers now represent 52 percent of Bloomberg US IG. The IMF, BIS, BofA, Moody's, Dalio, Norges Bank and options markets are all telling you th…
- 27 Jun 2026 The Market Doesn't Price One Distribution Anymore. It Prices Three. Crude is paying for downside capitulation. Semis are paying for unbounded upside. Rates are pricing two truncated tails at once. The vol surface in June 2026…
- 27 Jun 2026 WTI Positioning Is Screaming Floor. The Tape Isn't Listening Yet. Latest CFTC data shows hedge funds slashed long exposure into the hole. Systematic CTAs are mechanically short. Welcome to the zone where bottoms get made.
- 4 Jun 2026 AI tokens are becoming a geographic commodity. The market has not noticed. A four-tier framework for pricing the global AI inference trade, 2026-2030. Working paper out today on Zenodo and Academia.
- 31 May 2026 Three Views on Oil. Two Are Wrong. WTI derivatives say $90. The Chevron CEO sees upward pressure into June and July. Asian upstream equities imply just $62.80 a barrel. The asymmetric trade si…
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- 7 Jul 2026 US aggressive options flow. Jul 7 · midday. - META: calls, $184M, 138 unusual. - AMD: calls, $276M, 91 unusual. - JPM: calls, $70M, 38 unusual. Breakdown per ticker below.
- 6 Jul 2026 Where the size showed up. Jul 6 · midday aggressive flow. - ORCL: two-way, $58M, 56 unusual. - SPY: calls, $939M, 210 unusual. - NFLX: calls, $25M, 19 unusual. Breakdown per ticker below.
- 6 Jul 2026 Three tickers dominating US options flow. Jul 6 · open. - COST (Consumer): call-aggressive, $47M premium, 21 unusual strikes. - UNH (Healthcare): call-aggressive, $161M premium, 24 unusual strikes. Per-ticker below.
- 4 Jul 2026 Weekend vol read · Sat Jul 4 Sitting on NVDA into the long weekend: short-tenor implied has climbed above longer expirations, and downside protection isn't cheap. That configuration is the tape flagging a specific…
- 3 Jul 2026 Silver at 62.42. Gold-silver ratio 66.9. This is the level that has historically preceded silver outperformance vs gold. Not a prediction. A framing. 🧵 1/6
- 3 Jul 2026 Friday close. VIX 15.81. VXN 27.98. GVZ 26.00. OVX 41.62. Five vol indices. Five different stories. Zero consensus. The trade is not any single number. The trade is the geometry of the disagreement. Thread. 1/12
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Follow @crossvol_x →Daily vol reads, dealer-positioning takes, one setup a day. High signal, low noise — same desk voice as the newsletter.
- 7 Jul 2026 The full flow tile plus 25+ modules on options positioning, volatility surfaces, dealer gamma exposure and cross-asset signals: on the CrossVol Terminal. Start from $99/month. https://t.co/MROSqqSjEb
- 7 Jul 2026 NFLX. call-aggressive. PC vol 0.31. Total premium $22M. Notable call strikes: - 07/31 77C: $2.7M premium, 10x V/OI - 07/10 78C: $1.0M premium, 1x V/OI - 07/10 77C: $1.0M premium, 1x V/OI Buyers reaching for upside…
- 7 Jul 2026 QQQ. put-aggressive. PC vol 1.19. Total premium $634M. Notable put strikes: - 07/07 710P: $52M premium, 15x V/OI - 07/07 712P: $37M premium, 41x V/OI - 07/07 708P: $34M premium, 34x V/OI
- 7 Jul 2026 PLTR. call-aggressive. PC vol 0.40. Total premium $160M. Notable call strikes: - 07/10 135C: $11M premium, 3x V/OI - 07/10 140C: $8.5M premium, 1x V/OI Buyers reaching for upside in the monthly window, positioning…
- 7 Jul 2026 Three tickers dominating US options flow. Jul 7 · midday. - PLTR: calls, $160M, 23 unusual. - QQQ: puts, $634M, 162 unusual. - NFLX: calls, $22M, 14 unusual. Details below.
- 7 Jul 2026 The full flow tile plus 25+ modules on options positioning, volatility surfaces, dealer gamma exposure and cross-asset signals: on the CrossVol Terminal. Start from $99/month. https://t.co/MROSqqSjEb
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Long-form research notes. CFTC positioning, vol surface dissections, cross-asset transmission, regime calls. Web-only and email delivery available.
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