The weekly cross-asset read
Every Saturday, a trading-desk read of the week across equity index, crude, metals and more: volatility, positioning, prompt spreads and flow. The signals that carry into next week.
Large caps bought the dip. Small caps didn't.
Vol got crushed into Friday but the curve is still in contango and the Russell cannot catch up. Plus the SpaceX index change that reset the Nasdaq vol premium.
Gold fell when the bombs dropped. That tells you everything.
Same Iran shock as crude, opposite reaction. Gold sold off on the war headline while base metals looked through it. When the haven drops on an escalation, the market is trading the Fed.
The ceasefire broke and crude ripped. Then it gave half of it back.
Crude spiked on the Iran shock and handed back half by Friday. The bearish tell is a curve that could not hold backwardation, and a shortage sitting in diesel and gasoline, not in the barrel.